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PRMIA Operational Risk Manager (ORM) Sample Questions:

1. If the cumulative default probabilities of default for years 1 and 2 for a portfolio of credit risky assets is 5% and 15% respectively, what is the marginal probability of default in year 2 alone?

A) 10.53%
B) 10.00%
C) 11.76%
D) 15.79%

2. The frequency distribution for operational risk loss events can be modeled by which of the following distributions:
I. The binomial distribution
II. The Poisson distribution
III. The negative binomial distribution
IV. The omega distribution

A) I, II and III
B) I and III
C) I, II, III and IV
D) I, III and IV

3. Under the CreditPortfolio View model of credit risk, the conditional probability of default will be:

A) higherthan the unconditional probability of default in an economic expansion
B) lower than the unconditional probability of default in an economic expansion
C) lower than the unconditional probability of default in an economic contraction
D) the same as the unconditional probability of default in an economic expansion

4. A corporate bond has a cumulative probability of default equal to 20% in the first year, and 45% in the second year. What is the monthly marginal probability of default for the bond in the second year, conditional on there beingno default in the first year?

A) 3.07%
B) 15.00%
C) 2.60%
D) 31.25%

5. If E denotes the expected value of a loan portfolio at the end on one year and U the value of the portfolio in the worst case scenario at the 99% confidence level, which of the following expressions correctly describes economic capital requiredin respect of credit risk?

A) E
B) U
C) U/E
D) E - U

Solutions: